I checked my charts just after NFP and there seemed to be a muted response to the data. The unemployment rate was down but the amount of hiring was down too. So, to me, the didn't seem to bad. I've woken this morning to see that the US markets didn't take kindly to the news. 'Risk off' sentiment spiked and the broader markest have all closed well down. The DOW though, just to confuse matters, has still held above 13,000.
Some TS signals did kick in on the 4hr charts with this latest move BUT only on the E/J, A/U and A/J. I don't have any full signals on the others and I find this odd. This, to me, reflects caution about moving head strong into doom and gloom and full 'risk off' trading.
Those of you able to trade on the shorter term charts after NFP had some opportunities to gather trend trade pips on those mentioned pairs;
E/J: 50 pips
I've just got my laptop back. Yeh! The indices have done little again for today and the whole planet is clearly waiting for some direction with NFP.
I suspect that a good NFP outcome will be met with 'risk on' sentiment and poor data will be met with 'risk off'. So, really, I think you'd simply be gambling by placing any new trades now before NFP.
I don't have any new or old TS signals on the 4hr charts.
My laptop is sick and I'm taking it to the doctor. I won't be posting until I get it back. I'm not sure when this will be but it may not be until tomorrow. I'm not trading NFP Friday anyway.
The indices are essentially where they were when I left off last night.
The broader markets are down a bit at the moment though in the wake of poorer than expected US service sector data and, also, in some anxiety leading up to NFP data out later tonight.
Most of the pairs have bounced around sideways but I did miss a TS short signal on the A/U overnight. This also came along with a break of the daily bull trend line. The trade gave up to 450pips at one stage but has retreated somewhat now to about 25 pips:
I don't have any fully formed TS signals on any other pairs. This fact bothers me with the A/U trade. I won't jump in late to this at this stage, especially with NFP data due out later.
The indices are still just bouncing, even after slightly poor Euro PPI data out earlier. There is significant Euro interest rate data out in a bit so this may move things. If not, then I suspect it might take NFP to shift things. The 200 EMA on the 4hr USDX chart may give further up move some grief.
I still don't have any 4hr TS signals!
So, with no clear trends I sit here with my son doing his HW/study next to me and I keep an eye on the amusing and witty but, at times, ascorbic comments from Gerry Davies on Forex Live. He is great value! http://www.forexlive.com/
It's 'ditto' from the 2pm update!
Thursday 3/5 (2 pm)
The indices are still bouncing sideways and I don't have any TS signals on 4 hr charts. Some look close to forming but, as yet, they haven't done so.
I've just had a 4 hr candle close on my pairs and there are still no new TS signals on the 4 hr charts.
The indices are still bobbing around on the spot too. Of particular interest on these though is the ADX indicator: the + and - DMI lines are under the 20 level and the ADX is decreasing on both indices. This reflects a lack of momentum for either buying or selling on the pairs that trade against the USD and EUR.
There was poor US private sector employment data out overnight, following on from the earlier poor European data. This put pressure on the stock market with the DOW and S&P500 trading down for the day but both still held above their key levels (DOW above 13,000 and S&P above 1,400). Now, I would have thought that with all of this combined bad news that the slide would have been worse. Also, I would have thought the 'risk off' trade on FX would have been greater. It seems that this all stalled overnight though after the initial slump. I'm sure there is a big 'optimism' stick out there, somewhere, propping up all of the global markets. I'm just not sure who is holding it though!
The indices traded sideways again overnight after the moves from the London session,
I might be stupid but I closed my two 'risk off' trades just before bed last night. The E/U for 32 pips and the USD/SGD for a whole 7! Why? : because the lack of TS signals across the pairs worried me. Also, I think I really just wanted to re-coup my loss on the G/U from the night before. Anyway, I still don't have any TS signals on the pairs just yet. I think there is an anxious wait for the NFP data before the broader FX markets commit to either trading 'risk on' or 'risk off'. Until then, I expect we might see this indecision continue.
Some weak data out of Europe has kick started some movement on the USDX. The bullish descending wedge pattern came through;
The EURX has finally broken down from the 103 channel. It did this once before in recent weeks though and then pulled back;
The bearish ascending wedge pattern on the E/U unfolded though:
I am SHORT on the E/U and LONG on the USD/SGD. I took these on the basis of the indices break out, trend line breaks and TS signals on the 1 hr charts. I have moved my stops to b/e though as, interestingly, neither of these has given a TS signal on the 4hr charts. Signals may well develop by the next candle. Hmmm. It is odd. You know what though, I believe there are forces at work in the trading world to push for 'risk on' sentiment to prevail and this current move ain't that!
Not a lot has changed but the USDX is pushing up a bit.
I would suspect that trend signals might come through on the pairs if the USDX continues this way and pushes up to close above the 79 level.
I'm still watching the E/U closely in case the USD continues to rally. A break, close and hold below the weekly and monthly pivots, the bull trend line and the 4hr 200 EMA would be very nice, especially with a new TS signal to SHORT.
I'm still watching the E/U closely in case the USD continues to rally. A break, close and hold below the weekly and monthly pivots, the bull trend line and the 4hr 200 EMA would be very nice, especially with a new TS signal to SHORT.
Wednesday 2/5 (12 noon)
EURX: The EURX continues to trade 'crab like':
USDX: The USDX is looking bullish to me. It has held above the (weird) previous support level (pink line on chart) and does look like it is forming a mini double bottom. This is separate from the previous labelled double bottom. I have also drawn in some trend lines to show how price has been trading within a descending wedge like pattern. Descending wedge patterns are reportedly bullish patterns so, this is all seeming to fall into alignment to give a possible bullish picture for this index.
E/U: the E/U is also now trading within a kind of trend channel as well. The E/U channel is an ascending wedge though and these are reported as bearish patterns. This would dove tail in nicely with the USDX bullish trend, if it eventuates. I'll be watching for trend line breaks with TS signals here and the good thing is that the DMI lines are both below the 20 level so the next clear trend should be easy to spot.
It is all rather odd though. We had US stocks rise overnight and the Asian markets are tearing ahead today too. Maybe a de-coupling of the USD and stock market is in store?
I don't have any new TS signals yet.
The indices are little changed. There are no trends evident on any pairs. It might drift aimlessly like this until NFP Friday!
Wednesday 2/5 (6.30am)
The indices have continued bouncing sideways overnight.
I have been stopped out of my G/U short due to having too tight a stop. Had I used my usual stop I would have woken to have this trade in profit.
The broader markets did, indeed, have yet another positive day for the first trading day of the month, thereby continuing this statistical phenomenon. It makes me wonder, all the more, why I traded 'risk off' overnight!
I don't have any new TS signals at the moment.
The USDX is looking weaker. I'm not happy with myself for entering the G/U short when I had said that I'd wait for clearer direction. Especially on a trading day that is 'risk on' more often than it is 'risk off'. My signal for this trade has weakened as well but I'm going to leave it.
It is looking at this stage like the USDX is going to have a bounce.
I don't find this at all surprising given the steady drip of rather bad data over the last few days.
I have received a signal to SHORT the G/U. I have taken this with a small stop, even though I know I said I'd wait. This goes against the usual 'risk on' trend for the first trading day and the positive bias that seems to be ever present of late but the Pre-Markets are now indicating a down day anyway.
The indices are still ranging BUT I'll be on the look out to see if the USDX forms a mini double bottom here.
I don't have any new TS signals that I would take for now. I do have some on the Aussie pairs but this is due to the RBA news and I'd be loathe to trade on this after such a large move. I'll watch the A/U again around the bottom triangle trend line on the daily chart though for a possible new set up, either LONG or SHORT.
I'm still keeping a close eye on the E/U for a triangle breakout. The ADX has ticked up for sure BUT I don't have a TS signal on this pair yet.
I'm also watching the USD/JPY. If there is a bounce and rally with the USD then, this might be a fairly low-risk bounce trade off support from the daily 200 EMA. Not my usual 'cup of tea' but....it's kinda jumping out at me.
The Cable could also give off a new TS signal to SHORT soon if 'risk off' returns in style.
Today is the first trading day of the month. Statistically, there are more bullish trading days than bearish on this part of the calendar. It will be interesting to see if this phenomenon unfolds today for the US markets. The US pre-markets are currently showing a positive lead into the open. You can check this for yourself at: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15839285. Then, click on the 'Markets' tab and choose 'Pre-Markets'.
The RBA interest rate announcement upset my quadruple bottom pattern. See, fundamentals can always upset technicals!
I will probably get TS signals on the A/U after this big 'interest rate' led move but I'm going to let the dust settle first.
Tuesday 1/5 (10:30 am) Revised trend lines on E/U and the Swissie
E/U: I've had a quick review of the E/U this morning. I've adjusted the recently broken bear trend line a bit to reflect the most recent resistance on this pair. I've also added in a bull trend line to show recent support. The latter is more relevant for the 4 hr chart.
You can see on the monthly chart that the inverse H & S pattern is still a possibility:
The daily chart still shows how price is trading within a descending wedge pattern: between the support of the pink 103 support level and the descending bear trend line:
The added bull trend line on the 4hr chart shows how price is now also trading within a smaller symmetrical triangle. This pattern is embedded within the context of the larger descending wedge visible on the daily chart. Notice also how the monthly pivot has moved given we are in a new month:
Why do this? Because trend line breaks give added confluence to any new TS signals. I will be watching for these signals on this pair and will trade whatever way it evolves, up or down, I don't mind.
Swissie: I've adjusted the lower trend line on the Swissie too so as to reflect more recent support levels.
I closed my A/U LONG trade for a lousy 10 pips! Why? because I would most likely get stopped out on spikes with the news out later today from either China or Australia. Also, I wanted to 'close off' April which has been a lousy month for me both trading wise and health-scare wise. I'm not making excuses but I have had a lot of significant health distractions this month as well as the Easter break holiday and my son home for 3 weeks. With all of this, following on from holidays through most of March, I have found it hard to settle back in and focus on trading. I'm hoping May will be a better trading month.
The indices are still bouncing sideways and there are no new TS signals on the 4 hr charts.
The indices are still bouncing sideways and there are no new TS signals on the 4 hr charts.
PS: Just noticed this pattern on the A/J. A "Quadruple Bottom" in the making maybe??
Tuesday 1/5 (6am)
Risk off kind of stalled overnight. The USDX rally faltered and the EURX failed to break down. They are both back to trading sideways. Neither seems keen to make the first big move.
I am still LONG on the A/U from the TS 4hr signal from last week. I would trade this one differently if I had my time again though: I would have taken the initial TS LONG signal and been out by now on half the trade with a 100 pip profit target hit and the rest would still be running. There is red flag news out later today from China and Australia which will move this pair.
My speculative E/U long trade was stopped out, annoyingly, at b/e by a spike. It is still hanging back up near the monthly pivot though. I don't understand how the EUR stays inflated with the swathe of bad Euro zone news binding the markets.
The broader markets were down overnight with the DOW still holding above 13,000 but the S&P500 slipped back below 1,400.
I won't take a new trade for this week until there is a clear idea of market sentiment and direction on the indices, as describe in my w/e post.
I won't take a new trade for this week until there is a clear idea of market sentiment and direction on the indices, as describe in my w/e post.
The USD is bouncing up off the identified support at this stage and it seems there may be a return to 'risk off'.
I'm still LONG on the E/U, just, and on the A/U at this stage.
Monday 30/4 (6pm)
The indices are back to bouncing sideways but may start a dedicated move now that Europe is waking up.
There hasn't been much action on the pairs I watch. The USD/SGD short, from last week, has continued downwards. The G/U LONG from 2 weeks ago is still going too! The Yen pairs are down but I'm still wary of them and think this is more BoJ related than anything.
I'm still LONG on the E/U and A/U but have tightened my stop. I'm still wary of potential down movement with any "Sell in May and Go Away" renewed 'risk off' momentum. The E/U is loitering around the monthly pivot. The support level, currently holding the USDX, needs to be broken to allow for continued 'risk off'.
The indices are little changed. No new TS signals yet.
Monday 30/4 (10am)
My indices charts have just opened and the USDX is hovering above Friday's close and the EURX is still meandering sideways.
The E/U and A/U have opened a bit lower but there is no real indication about whether there is going to be 'risk on' or 'risk off' trading sentiment just yet.
I still think the markets can move either way from here even though there have been bullish moves on the E/U, A/U and G/U and, also, on the DOW and S&P500 of late. I really would like to see the EURX break up above the 4 hr 200 EMA and the USDX break below its current level to be confident that 'risk on' has returned. "Sell in May and Go Away" keeps niggling at the back of my small brain!
I am still LONG on the A/U. I am also LONG on the E/U even though the TS signal on the 4hr chart here didn't develop. I jumped in LONG on the E/U more on the trend line break really. So, my only TS trade so far is the A/U LONG. The A/U signal has weakened and I could close the trade now for 50 pips. I'm going to let it go though. Remember that I waited to enter this trade and, if I had got in at the start, it would have given up to 140 pips!
BTW: Japan's markets are closed on Mon, Thurs and Fri. China is closed on Mon and Tue with Europe closed on Tue. So, it could be a slow start to the week but we have NFP on Friday to maybe kick things along from then. We also have AUD data on Tue.
